The Super Bowl, the Presidential race, and now the Oscars. It's a year of stiff competitions and potentially (ahem) Giant upsets.
It was a strong year at the movies - the strongest in recent memory. So instead of approaching the Oscars with the usual who'll-sweep-it-this-time malaise, I'm actually looking forward to seeing which way the wind blows. Will there be "Blood", or will it be "No Country" for gold men? (Yes, I did just type that.)
Of course, there's always some amount of politics and nepotism on hand at the Academy Awards. But maybe that's what keeps us coming back. And for the second year in a row, I decided to try my hand at foretelling some of those notoriously arbitrary (and, let's face it, archaic) decisions.
So here are the Academy Award winners as I would have them. As usual, my picks are in italics. Here goes...
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
This one seems like a gimme. It's nice to see Tommy Lee up there, but "Elah" likely went unseen by as many Academy voters as it did audience members (a shame, it's worth seeing). And while Viggo's naked bathhouse fight scene was one for the ages, this dark Russian mob story won't earn him a naked gold statue. Meanwhile, yes, Johnny can sing, but he can also act and he's got a lot of great performances left in him. He'll get his Oscar someday, just not today. The same goes for Clooney, who just seems to get better with each passing year. But his understated performance in "Clayton" isn't going to do it. No, this is the year that Daniel Day-Lewis drinks the Academy's milkshake (I guess it does bring all the boys to the yard). Unless there's a major upset, Daniel will have his day (again).
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Wilkinson is always terrific, but his bonkers attorney in "Clayton" can't compete in this strong category. It's good to see recognition for Hoffman, who gave more great performances this year ("War", "The Savages", "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead") than most actors do in a full career. Startlingly, Affleck is a close second, turning in fine work in "Jesse James" and "Gone Baby Gone". The sentimental favorite is Holbrook, and the Academy has been known to award an occasional, surrogate "lifetime achievement" Oscar. But this one deserves to go to Javier, whose quarter-flipping, air-gun-wielding baddie still has us all looking over our shoulders. Ironically, this one has a 50-50 chance.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
It's great to see Ellen Page get recognition for making "Juno" so much more than a plucky, precocious, pop-culture know-it-all. This isn't the last time we'll see her in this category, but it's the first time she'll walk away empty-handed. I wasn't crazy about "Savages" and (he said timidly) completely skipped "Golden Age". But this year we're looking at a dead-heat between Julie Christie's heartbreaking take on a woman disappearing into Alzheimer's and Marion Cotillard's stunning tour-de-force as Edith Piaf. "La Vie en Rose" is everything the Academy loves in a biopic...except that it's French. Advantage: Christie.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
There's been a lot of talk about giving this one to Ruby Dee (see the "lifetime achievement" comment for Hal Holbrook above). And while the Academy has been known to award limited-screentime performances before (Judy Dench, I'm looking in your direction), Ms. Dee's memorable five minutes may not be enough. It's good to see Blanchett rack up another nomination (you can't stop her, you can only hope to contain her), while Tilda Swinton and Saoirse Ronan feel more like also-rans to me. Neither performance can compare with the fierce work by Amy Ryan in "Gone". She managed to make her deadbeat mom simultaneously appalling and sympathetic. If the Academy can forget that this is a Ben Affleck film, this could be Ryan's year.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
"Persepolis", Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
"Ratatouille", Brad Bird
"Surf's Up", Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
"Persepolis" is getting major buzz in the indie world, but the Academy may not be ready to award a foreign film about a young Iraqi girl during the Islamic Revolution. And "Surf's Up"? Really? This one smells like "Ratatouille" to me. Mmm...ratatouille.
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Golden Compass"
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
Between "Blood", "Sweeney" and "Atonement", there's lots of good work here. But Tim Burton's unforgettably bleak vision wins out.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
Believe it or not, the meandering, overlong "Jesse James" deserves to win for this one. But I'm betting "Blood" will pull it out in the end.
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
"Across the Universe"
"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Since "Sweeney" is the only one whose costumes left any impression on me, I'll call it for the Demon Barber.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"No End in Sight"
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience"
"Sicko"
"Taxi to the Dark Side"
"War/Dance"
No competition in sight. Everyone see this movie. Immediately. And be very, very sad.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
While "Bourne" was edited to within an inch of its life, I'll choose the perfectly-paced "No Country", which the Coen brothers edited under their alias Roderick Jaynes. Plus, I just want to see who accepts the award.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
"Beaufort" Israel
"The Counterfeiters" Austria
"Katyn" Poland
"Mongol" Kazakhstan
"12" Russia
This one's not really fair since, out of the five, I only saw "The Counterfeiters". But it's a good film, so why not?
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
"La Vie en Rose"
"Norbit"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
Gotta give this one to the folks who masterminded the startling transformation of Marion Cotillard in "La Vie".
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
"Atonement"
"The Kite Runner"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"3:10 to Yuma"
Of these five, which one do you remember? If you're thinking of the inspired use of a typewriter as percussion (as I am), then let's give this to "Atonement".
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"Falling Slowly" from "Once"
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted"
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush"
"So Close" from "Enchanted"
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"
Really? Three songs from "Enchanted"? I mean, I liked this movie as much (and probably more) than the next guy, and I'm looking forward to seeing Amy Adams belt them out on stage, but these three choices are kitschy at best. And anyway, can we please give something to "Once"?
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Transformers"
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Transformers"
I'd love to see "No Country", with it's evocative, expansive, dust-under-foot soundscape, walk away with the sound awards. But something tells me the robots are going to get it. And considering Michael Bay's boys-with-toys bombast didn't sound like so much crashing metal, I can live with that.
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Transformers"
Likewise for visual effects. While the ice bear smackdown in "Compass" packed a punch, and the maelstrom in "Pirates" swept you away, for a sheer visual feat, you have to go with "Transformers". It was, after all, more than meets the eye.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Juno", Written by Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl", Written by Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton", Written by Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille", Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
"The Savages", Written by Tamara Jenkins
Is there any competition for "Juno" in this category? Didn't think so.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"Atonement", Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her", Written by Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men", Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood", Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
Okay, now we're coming down to it. Ironic (or perhaps fitting) in a year marked by a writer's strike that we have so many fantastic scripts. Of all the awards this year, this is by far the tightest. Though "Away from Her" can't compete, the rest are a horse race. Any of the remaining four could (and should) walk away with this one. "Atonement" is exactly the type of period piece Oscar loves, though (from what I've heard) it doesn't live up to the experience of the book. And where "No Country" was faithful almost to a fault, "There Will Be Blood" was a complete reimagining of its source. Then there's "Diving Bell", which took an almost unfilmable memoir and created a work of art. Typically, the screenplay awards go to the runner-up for Best Picture (note "Juno" got the other writing award). And since "Diving Bell" - due to some archaic Academy rules - isn't even in the running for Best Picture, let's give it this one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly", Julian Schnabel
"Juno", Jason Reitman
"Michael Clayton", Tony Gilroy
"No Country for Old Men", Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood", Paul Thomas Anderson
It's nice to see Reitman up here, but when was the last time the Academy awarded comedy directing? And Gilroy's "Clayton" pales in comparison with the remaining three. It's possible Anderson could pull an upset here, if the voters can forgive the fact that he should have trimmed twenty minutes from the film. So it comes down to "No Country" and "Diving Bell". In a perfect world, Julian Schnabel's endlessly imaginative visualization of "locked-in syndrome" would get the recognition (and audience) it deserves. But Oscar's not great at giving its highest honors to subtitled foreign films. So give it to the Coens. I can't be mad at that.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
You've probably guessed where I'm going with this one. "Atonement" is typical Oscar bait, but something about its staid, arm's-length tone didn't resonate. "Clayton" is a throwback to the intense, character-driven thrillers of the past - but those didn't win Oscars either. If the Academy separated Best Picture into Comedy and Drama, then there'd be room for "Juno". But unless "Blood" pulls a surprise upset, give the gold man to "No Country".
Let the games begin. See you next Sunday.
